Nadal beats Federer to reach Aussie final
Tennis Betting Lines
01/26/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the all-time greats did battle in a Grand Slam event once again on Thursday, and once again it was Rafael Nadal beating his fellow former world No. 1 star Roger Federer, this time in the Australian Open semifinals.
The second-seeded Nadal secured a berth in his second Aussie Open final in four years with a 6-7 (5-7), 6-2, 7-6 (7-5), 6-4 come-from-behind victory over the third-seeded Federer at Melbourne Park.
Nadal's opponent in Sunday's final will be world No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic or 2010 and 2011 Aussie runner-up Andy Murray, the fortnight's fourth seed. Djokovic-Murray will start at 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday.
The gritty Nadal broke Federer to go up 5-4 in the fourth set, and eventually converted on his second match point in the next game.
The elegant Swiss saved the first match point when Nadal swatted a backhand wide, but the Spanish strongman converted on his second when Federer sailed one final forehand beyond the baseline at Rod Laver Arena.
The match ended in 3 hours, 42 minutes, as Nadal tallied twice as many service breaks (6-3), while Federer piled up 29 more unforced errors (63-34) and five double faults. Federer struck 11 aces in a losing effort.
The 25-year-old Nadal and 30-year-old Federer met for a 27th time, and the fiery Spaniard now holds a lopsided 18-9 lifetime advantage, including an 8-2 mark in Grand Slam matchups. Nadal has now won their last five Grand Slam meetings.
Nadal also beat his great rival, in five sets, in the 2009 Aussie Open finale.
The powerful southpaw Nadal and Federer were in the same half of the draw at a major for the first time since 2005. The two superstars have met in a men's record eight major finals, with Nadal winning six of them.
Nadal is a 10-time major champ and the reigning French Open titlist. Federer, who appeared in his 30th Grand Slam semifinal, is a men's record 16-time Grand Slam winner, including a men's Open Era record-tying four Aussie championships.
Federer, who hasn't won a Grand Slam event since titling here in Melbourne two years ago, had yet to drop a set at this latest Aussie fortnight before running into the determined Nadal.
The iconic Federer appeared in his ninth straight Aussie semi on Thursday.
Nadal will now appear in his 67th career ATP-level final (46-20). He's 10-4 in Grand Slam finals, including a 1-2 mark last year.
On Friday, the good friends Djokovic and Murray, both 24 years old, will meet in a rematch of last year's Aussie title tilt, which was won easily in straight sets by the mighty Serb. The three-time Grand Slam runner-up Murray has appeared in the last two finals in Melbourne, as he lost to Federer here two years ago.
Murray was a titlist in Brisbane three weeks ago.
Djokovic is 6-4 lifetime against Britain's Murray, with their lone Grand Slam meeting coming in last year's finale here. The Serb is 3-0 when they've met in semifinals of a tournament.
The capable Murray is still seeking his first-ever major title.
The reigning Aussie Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open titlist Djokovic is a four- time major champion who has won two of the last four Aussie Open titles, with his first one coming in 2008.
He has won 37 of his last 39 Grand Slam matches and is seeking a third straight major title. A championship this week would put him in select company, as only four players -- Laver, Pete Sampras, Federer and Nadal -- have captured three straight Grand Slam titles in the Open Era (since 1968).
Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have combined to win seven of the last eight Aussie Open championships.
Sunday's big winner will collect more than $2.4 million.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.